National Analytical Center Presents a Survey-Calibrated Model of Kazakhstan’s Credit Market at the IPAF Summit

Astana, 13 August 2026. Akbobek Akhmedyarova, Director of the Center for the Development of Economic Modeling at the National Analytical Center, Nazarbayev University, spoke at the 10th Summit and Conference of the International Public Asset Management Company Forum (IPAF). She presented a study examining how different groups of households respond to changes in interest rates and credit conditions.

The summit took place in Astana from 12 to 14 August 2026 and focused on non-performing loan management and financial stability in emerging markets. The event was organized by the Asian Development Bank, the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and Problem Loans Fund JSC.

The conference brought together representatives of central banks, financial regulators, international organizations, and asset management companies. Participants included experts from the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Korea Asset Management Corporation, Bank Indonesia, and other organizations from Asia and Europe.

The discussions focused on the drivers of problem debt, the development of early-warning systems, modern approaches to distressed-asset management, and the use of data and digital technologies to assess and mitigate credit risks.

Akbobek Akhmedyarova spoke during the first session, “Drivers of NPL Formation and Early Warning Systems.” The discussion also featured Irman Robinson, Executive Director and Head of the Department of Macroprudential, Monetary, and Market Surveillance at Bank Indonesia, and Karlis Bauze, Senior Financial Sector Specialist at the World Bank. The session was moderated by Alessandra Donini, Economist at the Asian Development Bank.

In her presentation, “Survey-Calibrated DSGE of the Credit Channel: Household Credit Behaviour, Monetary Transmission, and Non-Performing Loans in Kazakhstan,” Akbobek Akhmedyarova introduced a model that combines macroeconomic data with evidence from a survey of 1,000 households.

A key feature of the study is its focus on differences in households’ financial behaviour. Households vary in their financial resilience, propensity to consume, and ability to spread expenditure over time. According to the survey, 47% of respondents would spend almost all additional income on current needs, while 33% would prefer to save a substantial share of it. Based on these differences, the model distinguishes between two groups of households. The first has a high propensity to consume and spends most of its current income on day-to-day needs. The second has greater capacity to build savings and shift part of its consumption to future periods.

The model results show that changes in monetary conditions affect these groups differently. When the base rate rises, financially vulnerable households reduce consumption more quickly and experience a greater increase in their debt burden. The effect is less pronounced among households with greater capacity to save and adjust their expenditure over time.

This approach makes it possible to assess not only the average macroeconomic effect of monetary policy decisions but also their consequences for specific groups of the population, including their exposure to the risk of problem debt.

A separate part of the presentation explored the potential use of behavioural tools to prevent credit risks. These tools take into account how borrowers make financial decisions in practice, including their tendency to postpone payments, varying responses to reminders, limited attention to loan terms, and delays in seeking assistance when financial difficulties arise. Instead of applying the same measures to all borrowers, a behavioural approach allows support to be tailored more closely to groups with different levels of financial resilience and different decision-making patterns. This is particularly relevant for households with a high propensity to consume, which respond more strongly to tighter credit conditions and may face difficulties servicing their debt sooner.

The study continues the National Analytical Center’s work on integrating survey evidence, behavioural characteristics, and economic modeling. Combining these methods makes it possible to account for differences in household behaviour when assessing the effects of public policy and to develop more targeted measures to reduce credit risks, support financially vulnerable groups, and strengthen financial stability.

More information about the 10th IPAF Summit and Conference is available on the official event page.